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Abnormal Returns

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Thursday links: the carry trade

Nov 5, 2009
Felix Salmon, “..every move upwards in US stocks or gold or the Aussie dollar or junk-bond indices is another step in exactly the wrong direction: it’s a step towards yet another massive crash. And it’s all being turbo-charged by Fed policy.” ...

Punditry, predictions and profits

Nov 4, 2009
Humans have a large appetite for forecasts and predictions across a broad spectrum of domains. – Michael Mauboussin* Given this quote it is not surprising that the financial media is a voracious machine in constant need of analysts and commentators...

Wednesday links: one year later

Nov 4, 2009
Despite a wild ride, the stock market is nearly flat since the 2008 election.  (Bespoke, ibid) How the July “momentum thrust” has played out so far.  (Trader’s Narrative) Adam Warner, “If your goal is to look brilliant, by all means, call turns. If...

Learning the lessons from losses

Nov 4, 2009
We are not sure who said it first, but it been oft repeated that the worst thing that can happen to a novice trader is to have some success with their initial trades.  The question is why? The most important skill a trader can acquire is the ability...

Tuesday links: leverage cycles

Nov 3, 2009
At least one company is not hoarding cash any more.  Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) buys railroad Burlington Northern (BNI).  (WSJ, 24/7 Wall St., DealBook, FT Alphaville) Warren Buffett is betting on the American economy (and continued stimulus...


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