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FiveThirtyEight

Electoral projections done right.
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Independent Voters and Empty Explanations

Nov 5, 2009
Karl Rove: The trend here is that suburban and independent voters moved into the GOP column. The overall shift away from Democrats was 13 points in Virginia, 12 points in New Jersey, and eight points in Pennsylvania. Looking ahead, the bad news for ...

The Elections: What Happened and Why?

Nov 4, 2009
The outcome of all seven contests that we were tracking tonight appears settled, or very nearly so: Virginia Governor: Republican Bob McDonnell wins by 17 points, toward the upper end of the range predicted by the pollsters, although not to anybody&...

Gubernatorial Races a Poor Yardstick

Nov 3, 2009
Here is the problem with using the results from New Jersey or Virginia tonight to judge the status of the national political environment. It's not so much that the races are "meaningless" in the abstract, but that ticket-splitting is s...

2009 Elections Preview: Maine Question 1 (Gay Marriage)

Nov 2, 2009
Maine -- Question 1 -- "Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?" . The Positions: A 'Yes' vote overturns same-sex marriage...

Picking on Cliff Clavin

Oct 23, 2009
A few weeks ago I wrote my Baltimore Sun column about conservatives' attacks on the Post Office as an example of government ineffectiveness and inefficiency. The USPS is, after all, losing money right now--burdened as they are by hefty labor cost...

Advice To Blanche Lincoln: Speak Softly, But Carry Firm Position on Health Care Reform

Nov 22, 2009
Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln, who is up for a tough re-election fight next year, really doesn't have any good choices when it comes to the Democrats' health care reform bill. On the one hand, the measure has become unpopular in her state, and...

Is Gallup "upping the sample to black Americans"?

Nov 22, 2009
Mark Blumenthal links to Rush Limbaugh accusing Gallup of "upping the sample to black Americans to keep up at 50%" in the polls. (For the context, see the last paragraph of the transcript.) Frank Newport of Gallup responds here. Newport denies it...

Is The Public Option Un-Un-Dead?

Nov 21, 2009
Having underestimated the resilience of the public option before, I'm naturally a bit reluctant to do so again. But with three or four Senators threatening to filibuster a bill that contains a public option, it's time for a review of the...

Lincoln To Vote for Motion to Proceed, But Threatens Filibuster on Public Option

Nov 21, 2009
Mostly just stealing someone else's copy here -- in this case, Politico's: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) said she’d deliver the deciding vote to push forward with a sweeping health reform plan in the Senate Saturday, ending days of speculation over...

I Read Through 160,000,000 Bytes of Hacked Files And All I Got Was This Lousy E-Mail

Nov 20, 2009
It's the global warming scandal of the century, says Michelle Malkin! The exposure of the warmist conspiracy, says Andrew Bolt! The final nail in the coffin of anthropogenic global warming, bleats James Delingpole! A stunning tour de force -- four...


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