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FiveThirtyEight

Electoral projections done right.
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Independent Voters and Empty Explanations

Nov 5, 2009
Karl Rove: The trend here is that suburban and independent voters moved into the GOP column. The overall shift away from Democrats was 13 points in Virginia, 12 points in New Jersey, and eight points in Pennsylvania. Looking ahead, the bad news for ...

The Elections: What Happened and Why?

Nov 4, 2009
The outcome of all seven contests that we were tracking tonight appears settled, or very nearly so: Virginia Governor: Republican Bob McDonnell wins by 17 points, toward the upper end of the range predicted by the pollsters, although not to anybody&...

Gubernatorial Races a Poor Yardstick

Nov 3, 2009
Here is the problem with using the results from New Jersey or Virginia tonight to judge the status of the national political environment. It's not so much that the races are "meaningless" in the abstract, but that ticket-splitting is s...

2009 Elections Preview: Maine Question 1 (Gay Marriage)

Nov 2, 2009
Maine -- Question 1 -- "Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?" . The Positions: A 'Yes' vote overturns same-sex marriage...

Picking on Cliff Clavin

Oct 23, 2009
A few weeks ago I wrote my Baltimore Sun column about conservatives' attacks on the Post Office as an example of government ineffectiveness and inefficiency. The USPS is, after all, losing money right now--burdened as they are by hefty labor cost...


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