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FiveThirtyEight

Electoral projections done right.
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Independent Voters and Empty Explanations

Nov 5, 2009
Karl Rove: The trend here is that suburban and independent voters moved into the GOP column. The overall shift away from Democrats was 13 points in Virginia, 12 points in New Jersey, and eight points in Pennsylvania. Looking ahead, the bad news for ...

The Elections: What Happened and Why?

Nov 4, 2009
The outcome of all seven contests that we were tracking tonight appears settled, or very nearly so: Virginia Governor: Republican Bob McDonnell wins by 17 points, toward the upper end of the range predicted by the pollsters, although not to anybody&...

Gubernatorial Races a Poor Yardstick

Nov 3, 2009
Here is the problem with using the results from New Jersey or Virginia tonight to judge the status of the national political environment. It's not so much that the races are "meaningless" in the abstract, but that ticket-splitting is s...

2009 Elections Preview: Maine Question 1 (Gay Marriage)

Nov 2, 2009
Maine -- Question 1 -- "Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?" . The Positions: A 'Yes' vote overturns same-sex marriage...

Picking on Cliff Clavin

Oct 23, 2009
A few weeks ago I wrote my Baltimore Sun column about conservatives' attacks on the Post Office as an example of government ineffectiveness and inefficiency. The USPS is, after all, losing money right now--burdened as they are by hefty labor cost...

Is the Prognosis For Health Care Getting Better or Worse? The Market Weighs In.

Nov 10, 2009
It's a bit hard to assess where we are in the health care debate. On the one hand, the Democrats pushed through and passed a bill in the late hours of Saturday evening, clearing a hurdle that meaningful health care reform has never before cleared. On...

Many Previously Pro-Choice Dems Voted for Stupak Amendment

Nov 9, 2009
When I first learned that the Stupak Amendment, which would prevent abortion from being covered under health care plans included in the health care insurance exchanges, had passed by a 240-194 margin in the House, I assumed that something like the...

Republicans Far Behind on Women Legislators

Nov 9, 2009
On the front page of Politico this morning, a message of warning to congressional Republicans: The gist of the article was as follows -- as the Republican party has pushed out moderates, it has tended to appear more hostile to women candidates and...

Real Oklahoma Students Ace Citizenship Exam; Strategic Vision Survey Was Likely Fabricated

Nov 8, 2009
In detailing some of the evidence against Strategic Vision LLC, a pollster I am now almost certain is disreputable and fraudulent, I pointed in particular to a poll that they conducted on behalf of the Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs, an...

House Likely to Pass Health Care Bill Tonight

Nov 7, 2009
I don't like to make non-substantive posts such as this one. But the comments in the previous article are getting a bit unwieldy, so I'll leave this up as a placeholder for anyone spending their Saturday night watching C-SPAN. The U.S. House is...


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