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Only to the long-term readers of Midas Oracle and the friends of the prediction markets —often, the same persons.
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Paul Hewitt:
While it may be possible to operate public policy prediction markets for some issues, their use in the climate change or global warming debate is questionable. Not only can there be no guarantee of manipulation-free markets, we...
Paul Hewitt to David Pennock:
With all due respect, that testing was done on markets 30 days before they closed. As I noted, time had almost run out on each of the markets. Consequently, one might expect an almost perfect accuracy and...
