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The Numbers Guy

Carl Bialik examines the way numbers are used, and abused.
The Numbers Guy Blog  
Listed in: Society > News & Media
Related Topics: election, numbers, poll
Author: Carl Bialik
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Tags: forecasting global health math media money politics polling probability rankings science
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Which Would You Choose: Gas or Cash?

Jul 8, 2008
Drivers often have the option to buy lottery tickets when they pay for gas. As gas has gotten more expensive, lottery sales have gone down, and some lottery officials have linked the trends.

Can Statistics Explain Soccer?

Jun 24, 2008
Soccer is a fluid game with few statistics and a lot of luck. Its very nature seems to defy numerical analysis. But several companies are attempting to analyze and quantify th...

Mammogram Math

Dec 8, 2009
My print column this week looks at the numbers behind new recommendations to cut back on mammography screening among women for breast cancer. Among the problems with the underlying numbers are that they are based on relatively old studies. Part of the...

Holiday Sales Forecasts Clouded by Economic Turmoil, Methodology

Nov 30, 2009
Over the weekend, The Wall Street Journal examined why holiday retail sales forecasts have had such a poor track record. A postmortem of the seven most cited forecasts, from consultancies and trade associations, found that in 2008, when businesses...

Turkeys, Travel and Other Thanksgiving Myths

Nov 24, 2009
My print column this week considers oft-reported claims that Thanksgiving spurs the consumption of 46 million turkeys and the busiest travel period of the year. Both claims appear to be contradicted by government data. As part of a recent campaign...

How Many American Men Will Be Arrested in Their Lifetimes?

Nov 17, 2009
My print column this week examines a surprising statistic: Over their lifetimes, American men have a 52% chance of being arrested. Though the estimate originated in 1965 crime data, which were incomplete, subsequent inquiries have come up with...

If Statisticians Could Turn Back Time

Nov 10, 2009
My print column this week follows statistical time machines as they connect past and present in politics, science and sports. These can answer what-if questions, such as how today’s Supreme Court justices would have voted on past cases were they...

Which Would You Choose: Gas or Cash?


Can Statistics Explain Soccer?



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