Anthony L.

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George Soros Think Tank

Anthony L. posted an article on - Nov 5, 2009, 7:31 am
There is a major flaw in Soros’ justification for spending $50m on a new think-tank. He derides “unchecked free markets” when in fact no such thing exists. You either have free marke...
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Effective Tax Rates Around the World

Anthony L. posted an article on - Nov 4, 2009, 1:31 pm
Here’s a short brief (link) by The Economist on effective tax rates around the world. At a stunning 55 percent effective tax rate on annual gross earning of $100,000, Slovenia is the most heavil...
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Auto Sales Cruise Ahead in October

Anthony L. posted an article on - Nov 4, 2009, 10:21 am
On Tuesday major auto manufacturers indicated that their October sales rebounded significantly following a weak September. The increase to the US annualized sales rate was nearly 20 percent better th...
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A Call to Arms

Anthony L. posted an article on - Nov 4, 2009, 7:14 am
American populist angst has been rising for some time now. The optimist in me hopes that the Tea Party movement, and with it the rekindling within Americans of the vision of the founders and the defen...
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US Growth Probably Now at 4.5 percent

Anthony L. posted an article on - Nov 3, 2009, 12:59 pm
The economy continues to rebuild itself and the manufacturing sector has now grown for three consecutive months. According to the Institute for Supply Management, their PMI registered 55.7 percent. Th...
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Gold Bug Bit The Tudor

Anthony L. posted an article on - Nov 3, 2009, 9:53 am
Edgar Allen Poe’s most widely circulated story was ‘The Gold Bug‘ where William Legrand appears to go insane after being bitten by a bug he thinks is pure gold and embarks on a search for mythic...
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Do It Their Way

Anthony L. posted an article on - Nov 3, 2009, 6:51 am
Tom Slee has written a book entitled No One Makes You Shop at Wal-Mart. The introduction of the book ends with “why we need to rely on collective action rather than individual choice to take us ...
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Interesting Readings for November 2, 2009

Anthony L. posted an article on - Nov 2, 2009, 12:48 pm
Sanjeev Sanyal in Business Standard : Building cities for 21st century India, Delhi (which leads you to delhinullahs.org), and Calcutta. Also see: The Sustainable Planet Institute. Why ...
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Japanese Companies, Exports and the Current Account

Anthony L. posted an article on - Nov 2, 2009, 10:35 am
Last week, we learned that industrial production rose yet again in Japan clocking in at 1.4% month-on-month in September after having increased by 1.6% in August. Companies said they planned to incre...
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Colorado Governor: "Reason For Optimism"

Anthony L. posted an article on - Nov 2, 2009, 6:32 am
An open letter from Colorado Governor Bill Ritter: Here in Colorado, we’re seeing encouraging signs of success and reason for optimism. Last week we learned Colorado’s unemployment rate ...
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Q4 Growth Likely to be Stronger than Q3

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 30, 2009, 10:04 am
Thursday we got another indication that the U.S. economy is returning to strong growth. The government’s first estimate for the third quarter came in at a 3.5 percent annual pace. Again most ...
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Relentless Advance Of Technology

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 30, 2009, 7:04 am
The first message to ever travel between two computers connected via the ARPANET, the computer network that would become the Internet, happened on 29 October 1969.  The Internet just turned 40.  And...
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Golden Avalanche

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 29, 2009, 1:25 pm
Nick from www.sharelynx.com shared some quotes with me that I’d like to pass on. They are from a book written in 1939 by Graham & Whittlesey called Golden Avalanche: “Before leaving the subje...
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Gold Party Intermission Nearly Over

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 29, 2009, 7:10 am
The recent gold bull upleg is in the midst of a predictable slight correction and consolidation.  When that finishes it is highly probable, based on seasonality and technicals, that the next part of ...
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Tax on Hiring

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 29, 2009, 6:24 am
The US Sentate is currently considering a bill designed to pay people to be unemployed, and to penalize any private parties that still employs people. Well, that’s not exactly how the bill is w...
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A Jobless Recovery? Not this Time

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 28, 2009, 11:55 am
Early this week a survey release by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) provided new evidence that the U.S. recovery is solidly under way and will be sustained well into 2010. The ...
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Credit Cards and the Collapsing Country

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 28, 2009, 8:50 am
The policy of credit card companies charging an annual fee for those cardholders with solid credit is a good proxy for the state of the nation, and also a microcosm of both the progressive (read socia...
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Should We Expect the Rules of a Good Society to be Good for Everyone?

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 27, 2009, 1:05 pm
In my view, we should expect the rules of a good society to have the assent of nearly everyone but that does not mean that these rules are good for everyone. In particular, the law of liberty – prev...
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Central Bank Earnings

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 27, 2009, 10:03 am
Sorry for the hiatus, but I am preparing a large note on the ECB, whether it is conducting QE or not, what QE at the ECB is, and finally what the prospects of an exit strategy is. This has taken most ...
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Buffett: "Enormous Progress"

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 27, 2009, 6:59 am
This past week Warren Buffett said that is is now very clear that the low point in the US economy has already passed, with “enormous” progress being seen over the past year. Buffett attri...
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Are Americans Becoming Less Nomadic?

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 26, 2009, 1:14 pm
As a puny yet honest attempt to show you that I actually read other things than plain economics I thought that I would share this piece with you on declining nomadism amongst Americans; it is written ...
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Replace Harvest With Penn West

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 26, 2009, 10:09 am
On 22 October 2009 Reuters reported that Korea National Energy Corporation will purchase Harvest for C$1.8B or C$10 per unit.  On 12 December 2008 I wrote, “For these reasons Harvest appears to be ...
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Jobs Created

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 19, 2009, 1:23 pm
I just cringe whenever I hear Obama or his minions talking about how they created or saved N jobs. As an economist, I’m trained to look for the other side of the coin. Yin and Yang. The coin ...
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Movement on Corporate Bonds

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 19, 2009, 10:21 am
Shilpy Sinha and Swapnil Mayekar have a story in Business Standard offering some optimism about the corporate bond market. They point out that in the six months from April to September...
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Gold Rising As A Currency

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 19, 2009, 7:14 am
On 9 October 2009 I was interviewed by Business News Network, Canada’s premier financial channel, live from the NASDAQ in Times Square New York about the rise of gold. BNN HOST:  A note that caug...
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Differing Views on the Spanish Banking Sector

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 16, 2009, 12:53 pm
Who does not like a good argument? I for one do, especially when it comes to economics. A lot of water has already gone under the bridge relative to the note published a couple of weeks back by Varian...
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Malevolence? Stop the Insanity!

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 16, 2009, 9:50 am
“There has to be a counterweight to the malevolence of the insurance industry.” So says Senator Jay Rockefeller said to mop-topped interviewer Al Hunt of Bloomberg. Malevolence? What’s nex...
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General Electric Profit Slumps 44%

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 16, 2009, 7:49 am
from Marketwatch: General Electric profit slumps 44% Financial business being run down rapidly, industrial business, a basic GDP play, seeing 8% lower revenues from the year ago period. The pre-emi...
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Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 15, 2009, 12:04 pm
This one should really go on Beta.Sources, but I thought that it deserved attention over and above the fold too. It is a couple of years old, but still well worth a look; hat tip (an old BW blog post)...
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JPM, Intel Ignite Markets, Fed Affirms

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 15, 2009, 8:46 am
As a Q3 positive earnings season rolls on, JPMorgan Chase and Intel ignited the markets on Wednesday. Later in the day, minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting reaffirmed our convictions tha...
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Doing Business 2010

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 14, 2009, 1:37 pm
The World Bank has recently released the latest Doing Business 2010 report, measuring the level of business and economic regulation around the world. In spite of the financial crisis and the global re...
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Interesting Readings for October 14, 2009

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 14, 2009, 11:33 am
David Oakley reports on Brazil having made it to investment grade. This is their payoff to the immense progress that took place in the last decade in terms of fiscal, financial and monetary in...
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The ECB's Balance Sheet at a Glance

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 14, 2009, 8:08 am
What follows is the reason that last week was completely quiet here at Alpha.Sources. Essentially, I was working away on a detailed look at the ECB’s balance and the related question of whether ...
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Aging and Export Dependency on the Agenda

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 13, 2009, 1:20 pm
... be used to this. One of the main interesting things about the notion that aging might be related to export dependency is that while it enjoys little, if any, support in the academic literature ....
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Nobel Prize In Economics 2009

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 13, 2009, 10:01 am
This year’s Nobel prize in economics goes to Elinor Ostrom and Oliver E. Williamson (link). Elinor Ostrom received the prize for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons while...
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Did We Get a Good IIP Number Today? No.

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 13, 2009, 7:01 am
It seems that we got a good IIP number today? Here’s what the year-on-year growth of IIP Manufacturing says: Mar 2009 -0.30 Apr 2009 0.39 May 2009 1.84 Jun 2009 7.82 Jul 2009 7.41 Aug 2009...
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Interpreting Recent Movements of the Rupee-Dollar Rate

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 12, 2009, 1:20 pm
In recent weeks, there has been a lot of focus on the appreciation of the rupee against the dollar. In an opinion piece in Financial Express today, I point out that the US dollar has fluctuated consid...
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The Case For Withdrawing Nickels

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 12, 2009, 10:30 am
United States legal tender nickels present an almost completely risk-free investment.  Getting a large 5 gallon bucket and tossing in the nickels from your daily change is an excellent way to preserv...
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Futures COT

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 12, 2009, 6:48 am
Adam Hamilton of Zeal LLC is one commentator I have been following for many years. His latest one on the Commitments of Traders Report is essential reading: “The bottom line is gold futures act...
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The Case of the Disappearing Bid?

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 9, 2009, 1:35 pm
I should immediately reassure my readers that I am not going to re-account or even continue Macro Man’s story of 2007 in which Sherlock Holmes was looking for a vanishing bid in risky assets. Al...
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Is Slovenia The Next Sick Man of Europe?

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 9, 2009, 10:00 am
Recently released data from OECD Economic Outlook (link) suggest that the recessionary period is likely ending as the output in world’s major economies is reversing the trend of the past year. I...
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Krugman and Recalculating

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 9, 2009, 6:58 am
Paul “MIT wants its PhD back” Krugman is at it again. Chen government action causes an economy to go bust, people need to adjust their spending (recalculating). This includes employers ...
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Corporate Capex in Japan (Q2-2009) – So, is This What a Recovery Looks Like?

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 8, 2009, 1:46 pm
Much pomp and circumstance was certainly made in relation to the fact that Japan actually grew in the second quarter at a full annualized 3.7 percent in the second quarter of 2009. Yet, the underlying...
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What Individuals Should Do About ObamaCare

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 8, 2009, 10:43 am
To quote Nancy Reagan, “just say no”. Specifically, just say no to this:nder my plan, individuals will be required to carry basic health insurance — just as most states require you ...
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Q3 Earnings Season Underscores Rebound

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 8, 2009, 7:29 am
While skeptics remain, Q3 earnings season kicked off on Wednesday with almost all those announcing earnings surprising to the upside. Alcoa, the firm which much earlier in the year pegged the global ...
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The Macroeconomic Effects Of Stimulus Spending

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 7, 2009, 1:14 pm
Robert Barro and Charles Redlick wrote an op-ed in WSJ (link) on their original paper (link) where they discuss the macroeconomic effects of fiscal stimulus and construct long-term time-series on U.S ...
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Risk On? The RBA bites the Bullet

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 7, 2009, 9:00 am
I am not an ardent watcher of the Australian economy so I shall leave it neatly to the side of whether this was expected or, Bloomberg so famously puts it, unexpected. Australia’s central bank unex...
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Chaotic Fingers Of Instability

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 7, 2009, 6:45 am
The world economy is incredibly intertwined.  For example, a butterfly flapped its wings in the Amazon resulting in typhoon after typhoon hitting the Philippines.  This has interrupted the work flow...
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SLV and Jeff Nielson

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 6, 2009, 11:40 am
On Sep 17 Jeff Nielson posted an article on SLV. I took issue with his belief that ETFs’ management fees were unrealistically cheap and thus another indicator they were a scam. Below is the exch...
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Evicted from Your Brand New Clunker

Anthony L. posted an article on - Oct 2, 2009, 7:50 am
Roger Wiegand of Trader Tracks Newsletter finally says what I always figured: “Cash for Clunkers was a real clunker. One out of four auto buyers using this program is having buyer’s remorse as the...
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