Daniel C.

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Employment Report

Daniel C. posted an article on - Dec 4, 2009, 8:24 am
By Spencer The BLS just wished the Obama administration a very merry Christmas with a very encouraging employment report. It was still a report that things are worsening at a lesser rate as far as e...
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I Tend to Describe this as "Unwarranted Optimism"

Daniel C. posted an article on - Dec 3, 2009, 1:57 pm
The Shrill One (tm - Brad DeLong) as Optimist: The result, then, will be high unemployment leading into the 2010 elections, and corresponding Democratic losses. These losses will be worse because Obam...
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Simple Answers to Simple Questions, Floyd Norris/GS Edition

Daniel C. posted an article on - Dec 3, 2009, 11:04 am
Floyd Norris is Shocked! Shocked! to Find Goldman Sachs controls Congress as well as the Treasury. Where has he been for the past three years? Imagine the reaction if, perhaps during the 1998 Asian fi...
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Mid week open thread Dec. 3, 2009

Daniel C. posted an article on - Dec 3, 2009, 3:36 am

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Quote of the Decade, if it goes the way I expect

Daniel C. posted an article on - Dec 2, 2009, 11:53 am
I would much prefer to think that all of this is a matter of his life being in turmoil throughout this decade, rather than Larry Summers being right about anything. Scott McLemee on Cornell West, with...
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Same Store Sales

Daniel C. posted an article on - Dec 2, 2009, 8:04 am
By Spencer With Christmas season upon us and a great deal of attention being focused on the retailers reports of same store sales I thought it would be a good time to report on one of my pet peeves. ...
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Cross-post: A human economy for the twenty-first century

Daniel C. posted an article on - Dec 2, 2009, 6:58 am
Professor Keith Hart, author of the book The Memory Bank and proprietor of the blog of the same name, has graciously allowed AB to cross-post his 6,000+ word essay, A Human Economy for the Twenty-Firs...
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France? Ireland? Begium? Mauritania? And now Italy

Daniel C. posted an article on - Dec 1, 2009, 9:34 pm
No, not the 2010 World Cup draw. Countries that have more faith in the ability of people paid to protect them than the United States: Since 2002, more than 550 detainees have departed Guantanamo Bay ...
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PSA: Surveillance Data

Daniel C. posted an article on - Dec 1, 2009, 5:52 pm
Chris Soghoian's data available below, via Pando. (Background here, via Freedom to Tinker.)
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Proposed Financial Overhaul Bill

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 30, 2009, 1:03 pm
Rdan How does Congress keep track of such things, if at all, and again who reads these things except those willing to be wonks or lobbyists? Sen. Chris Dodds Proposed Financial Overhaul Bill...
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Happy Thanks giving

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 26, 2009, 4:00 am
Have a good Thanksgiving folks. From all the Bears
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Inflation Detour: Trimmed Mean PCE

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 25, 2009, 8:35 pm
Today's release by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas of October's Trimmed Mean Personal Consumption Expenditure gives us a chance to check this "alternative measure of core inflation." The c...
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Bashing Reagan on Social Security: Don't Go There

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 25, 2009, 11:57 am
by Bruce Webb News that the Republicans are pushing two bills that would establish a 'Bi-Partisan Commission' to 'reform' Social Security and Medicare are stirring up a debate whi...
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UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS: 1975, 1982-83 and 2009

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 25, 2009, 9:11 am
By Spencer The weekly initial unemployment claims are widely reported and various charts show how they have been falling since the peak. But it is hard to compare the drop in claims this cyc...
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Comparative Effectiveness Research

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 25, 2009, 7:49 am
by Tom aka Rusty Rustbelt Comparative Effectiveness Research (CER) may have inadvertently lost credibility even before health care reform is actually launched. CER is the darling of the gove...
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Inflation and Expectations

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 24, 2009, 2:10 pm
Ken Houghton follows up on his previous post. One of the few honest statements that came out of the Reagan Administration was in late 1982, when the Volcker policies were working but the market was s...
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China's Industrial Policy vs. US Random Behavior...Firedoglake

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 24, 2009, 8:39 am
Rdan Firedoglake presents a well written piece on US and Chinese trade policy: China’s Industrial Policy vs. US Random Behavior The U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission ...
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Taxes and Private Sector

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 23, 2009, 7:02 pm
by cactus Regular readers know that (together with a currently un-named co-author) I recently wrote a book looking at how Presidents performed on a wide range of issues, everything from abortion ...
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How Do We Predict Inflation?

Daniel C. Nov 23, 2009, 7:48 am
A deflationary spiral is one thing,re-inflating an old bubble is another. Tell me why if credit reserves are 6% of GDP and jobs continue down this is a good thing, and not just finance making financeial profit?
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Reform: Looking at the Glass Half-Full, Part 2

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 23, 2009, 4:02 am
November 12, 2009 Reform: Looking at the Glass Half-Full Part 2 Maggie Mahar, Health Beat Blog Reform: Looking at the Glass Half-Full, Part 2 The Truth about the Public Option For re...
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JP MORGAN: THE JOBLESS RECOVERY WON'T BE SO BAD

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 22, 2009, 7:42 am
Rdan Pragmatic capitalist points us to thinking that works for some. The strategy outlook at JP Morgan is little changed over the last week despite some sobering news out of the labor dep...
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Photographing Phantom Invisible Bond Vigilantes

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 22, 2009, 7:02 am
Robert Waldmann A specter is haunting Paul Krugman -- it is the specter of apparently sophisticated forecasters who predict a huge spike in US long term bond rates in the near future. He notes that ...
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How Do We Predict Inflation?

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 21, 2009, 10:59 pm
Ken Houghton notes that playing with data is dangerous. Predicting the future tends to be easy. There are several ways to do it. First, you can predict that everything will grow as it did this...
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Comment woes.

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 21, 2009, 11:17 am
Js-kit has some comments embedded in the post, at the bottom of each post after clicking on the title of the post you want to read. There is a disconnect with the blue comment link at the top of the ...
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Open thread Nov. 21, 2009 (no GW)

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 21, 2009, 5:24 am

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The Phantom Menace

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 21, 2009, 12:27 am
Robert Waldmann The one by Paul Krugman is a must read. what I hear is that officials don’t trust the demand for long-term government debt, because they see it as driven by a “carry trade”: fi...
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Quantitative Easing

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 20, 2009, 11:25 pm
Robert Waldmann Can the Fed do any more to stimulate the economy ? The question is back. The answer is only by making credible promises about the fairly distant future. My view is that this means ...
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I Blame This on the NHL

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 20, 2009, 7:11 pm
With all the talk of "Detroit," you would think that Michigan would have lost the most employees, as a percentage of same, on the year. After all, the scariest graph of the U.S. MSAs isn't scary ...
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Open thread Nov. 20, 2009 (with GW)

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 20, 2009, 5:24 pm
Update: Menzie Chin weighs in: http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/the_global_surf.html
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Teaching that Contracts Should Be Broken is Rewarding

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 20, 2009, 4:27 pm
Congratulations to Andrew Samwick of Capital Gains and Games for being named Professor of the Year in New Hampshire.
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Agribusiness, Food, Vegetarianism----and Taxes

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 19, 2009, 4:25 pm
[cross-posted on ataxingmatter--see posting there for additional comments] As some of you may know, I am one of the many people who eat a vegetarian diet. I don't eat cows, pigs, fish, wha...
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Heath Care Reform-- Looking at the Glass Half-Full

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 19, 2009, 4:16 pm
Rdan (Run 75441...h/t) Maggie Mahar writes an essay that is now cross posted at Angry Bear with the author's permission: Health Beat, a Project of the Century Foundation; November 4...
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Why is this so difficult to understand?

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 19, 2009, 3:00 pm
Suppose I make my monthly budget, and assume I'm going to spend $600 for food. At the end of the month, I discover that I only spent $520. I expected to take $80 out of savings that I now do not...
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Industrial Production

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 17, 2009, 2:03 pm
By Spencer Industrial production only increased 0.1% in October, from a previosly estimated 98.5 to 98.6. But I suspect this number was biased downward and will be revised higher. As the chart shows...
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Part of the Problem Becomes Part of the Solution

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 17, 2009, 1:34 pm
Moody's had always assumed banks and their securities were "Too Big to Fail." Not any more: Moody’s Investors Service will no longer assume that holders of the securities will benefit from gove...
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ER: It is the law, and often a slogan "Everyone can get care"

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 17, 2009, 9:34 am
Rdan Not only is ER care enormously expensive for 'more routine' health concerns than a clinic, but perhaps are not equal for insure/uninsured even for traffic accidents, not withstandin...
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More on the CMS Report

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 16, 2009, 8:57 pm
Robert Waldmann+ I paraphrase Kevin Drum My post last night about the CMS report on healthcare reform ... post and this Wonk Room post, you should get a pretty good idea of what's up. Kevin Dr...
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Health Affairs States the Obvious, So We Don't Have To

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 16, 2009, 7:47 pm
Bob Somerby has been on a rant at The Daily Howler that "liberals" do not understand the Stupak Amendment. Unfortunately, claims he makes about Rachel Maddow and Keith Olbermann and their guests do n...
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Anerica's Finest News Source Explains Glenn Beck Viewers

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 16, 2009, 3:34 pm
Passionate defenders, gather ye round: "Right there in the preamble, the authors make their priorities clear: 'one nation under God,'" said Mortensen, attributing to the Constitution a line fr...
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Changing the look...heads up!

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 16, 2009, 11:55 am
Rdan I will be switching the template this week. The key is function this week...Let me know if everything works from comments to links. Next week come refinements.
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The weather was beautiful on the day I was almost murdered.

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 16, 2009, 7:20 am
by cactus The weather was beautiful on the day I was almost murdered. Since it happened (or almost happened) in Brazil, it might not seem surprising that the weather was nice, but this was São ...
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Health Care Reform and Caregivers Refusing Medicare Patients

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 15, 2009, 4:58 pm
Robert goes out on a limb and guesses that Lori Montgomery fell for (or is pushing) Republican spin in this article in the Washington Post Report: Bill would reduce senior care Medicare cuts approved ...
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What Hath Larry Summers Wrought?

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 15, 2009, 12:05 pm
No place to pahk the cah.
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unemployment

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 15, 2009, 8:46 am
Rdan After having received e-mails regarding Mark Thoma's post on types of unemployment about who was included and excluded from the per centages, I thought a note on the relevance of the employm...
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The Best Health Care System in the World

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 14, 2009, 4:44 pm
For the record, both my daughters were vaccinated today, under government supervision at no cost to us, in a procedure that took less than 10 minutes—including getting a five-year-old to take he...
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The jobs of tomorrow...?

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 14, 2009, 9:52 am
Rdan For the sake of argument, jobs in our future over the next few years or so appear to be in the health care industry and education. Jobs needing less education than a BA are among the fastest gr...
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Open thread No. 14, 2009 (with GW)

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 14, 2009, 6:04 am

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Employment Policy

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 13, 2009, 8:22 pm
Robert Waldmann Larry Summers, who is very very good at provoking debate, said “It may be desirable to have a given amount of work shared among more people. But that’s not as desirable as expan...
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'New Normal' For Unemployment?

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 13, 2009, 4:48 am
CBS Moneywatch now features Mark Thoma about 10 posts a month. Apropos Angry Bear exploration of "structural unemployment", Mark writes on the topic of unemployment: The types of unemploymen...
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I Be Officially Right of Center Now?

Daniel C. posted an article on - Nov 12, 2009, 7:01 pm
As I am arguing on the same side as Henry Kaufman, and against the kind-hearted Mark Thoma, does the phrase "left-of-center" at the top of this blog have as much Memory Meaning as the Suzanne Vega son...
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