David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Dec 5, 2009, 10:20 pm
Before I begin, I want to thank longtime readers, and ask them to give me some feedback.  I have a category entitled Best Articles; what would you nominate to be in there.  Also, what would you take...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Dec 5, 2009, 4:54 pm
Many dream of riches.  Few achieve them.  Why?  It usually involves self-denial and hard work.  It’s not that anyone can’t achieve riches, if they start young enough, but they won̵...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Dec 2, 2009, 3:03 am
In the Fall of 2005, I was at the Annual Meeting of the Casualty Actuarial Society in exotic Baltimore, Maryland.  The Keynote address was by Roger Lowenstein who did a talk on two topics.  Warren B...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Dec 1, 2009, 12:45 pm
I like investing internationally, because of the diversification it offers, both in stocks and bonds.  Or, think of it as a hedge.  Will the American Experiment continue to prosper?  We have come a...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 28, 2009, 10:39 pm
Ben Bernanke has an editorial in the Washington Post that attempts to defend the Fed.  Here is my discussion of his editorial: These matters are complex, and Congress is still in the midst of consid...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 28, 2009, 9:29 pm
When I was a grad student, I always felt weird about Keynes.  I grew up in a home that was not explicitly “free market” but was implicitly so.  My Dad was a small businessman and my Mom ...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 27, 2009, 11:49 pm
Every one one us has limited bandwidth for analysis of data.  We pick and choose a few ideas that seem to work for us, and then stick with them.  That is often best, because good investors settle in...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 27, 2009, 8:37 am
There are always areas of excess in every market boom phase.  Dubai is an example of that.  Why can they build the tallest building, and construct islands in the Persian Gulf?  Cheap capital, ridin...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 26, 2009, 1:39 am
I do a reflective piece every 100 posts, because I like to take a step back, and share my heart with those who read me.  It is fun for me writing this blog, even more than when I wrote for RealMoney....
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 25, 2009, 12:33 am
I love economic history books.  The book that I am reviewing tonight is different because unlike most economic history books, it is mainly empirical rather than mainly anecdotal. Don’t get me ...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 24, 2009, 1:32 am
At the meeting of the eight bloggers and the US Treasury, one of the differences was whether the recovery was real or not.  The Treasury officials pointed to the financial markets, and the bloggers p...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 21, 2009, 10:41 pm
Before I begin this evening, I would like to comment on my absence for the last week.  I gave a talk on Friday to the Southeastern Actuaries Conference.  I found myself behind the eight-ball, becaus...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 13, 2009, 2:08 am
Imagine for a moment that you were approached by a very wealthy foundation, and they asked you to invest their money.  They offer a low asset-based fee, but the assets are so large that it looks like...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 12, 2009, 12:15 am
From Bloomberg, I quote our Treasury Secretary: “I believe deeply that it’s very important to the United States, to the economic health of the United States, that we maintain a strong dollar,” ...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 11, 2009, 2:44 am
At the Treasury meeting, I commented that the insurers were better regulated for solvency than the banks.  One of the reasons for that is that they do harder stress tests, and they look longer-term. ...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 10, 2009, 2:23 am
Things have been busy for me, so this final part should be short.  What did I learn that I did not already know?  Not much, except: The Treasury wants to convince  the public that it is doing its ...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 7, 2009, 10:30 pm
Now, none of us knew when we came that only bloggers were invited.  Personally, I expected it to be a broader press briefing that some bloggers could come to as well.  “Deep background” ...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 7, 2009, 3:23 pm
One other blogger took his nameplate with him — I’m not sure who; the rest left theirs.  But this is what was in front of each one of us as we sat down to discuss matters at the US Treasu...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 6, 2009, 2:44 am
So, who did I recommend for the next meeting at the Treasury? (I think there will be one.) Economists View http://economistsview.typepad.com/ Cafe Americain http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 5, 2009, 10:54 am
Going back to bank stress-testing for a moment, one interesting thing that a Treasury official said at the meeting was that unemployment did not have a big effect on foreclosures.  Unemployment has a...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 4, 2009, 2:04 pm
September 2009 November 2009 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn. In...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 4, 2009, 1:19 am
Before I start this evening, to all my fellow bloggers out there, if you were invited to the gathering at the US Treasury and did not come, I have a request and a question: If you were invited, send ...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 3, 2009, 2:48 am
This will have to be brief, because I am tired.  I have had to deal with family and work issues today, and only now have time to blog. You might have seen my fanciful post, Fallowhaven, Part 1.  I ...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 2, 2009, 10:18 am
In a prior job, I spent a decent amount of time on Affordable Housing tax credits.  The idea was to reduce my life insurance company client’s taxable income to the point where they would be clo...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Nov 1, 2009, 12:59 am
Once upon a time, in a land far, far away, there lived a man named Lord Fallow.  Lord Fallow was the Lord, the leader of his outlying area Fallowhaven, in the Kingdom of Greyscale.  Truth, being the...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Oct 31, 2009, 1:25 am
After my last book review, a reader asked how I was able to read so many books, given my other responsibilities.  My answer is this: I keep a book near me at all times.  When I get a break, I read a...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Oct 30, 2009, 12:25 am
This is not a political blog.  That said, almost all writing on economics and business embeds a political point of view.  I recognize that my view is relatively libertarian with respect to economics...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Oct 29, 2009, 1:04 pm
Bond indexes are what they are.  They represent the average dollar invested in the bond markets.  Those that say that the indexes are flawed miss the point.  Indexes represent the average return of...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Oct 28, 2009, 8:43 am
1) Perhaps the US Treasury is getting a few things right.  Let’s start with lengthening the average maturity of Treasury debt.  I have backed this idea in the past.  It is worthy to note that...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Oct 27, 2009, 2:06 am
Most of us were kids once.  I think I was a kid once, but my memory is fuzzy.  I do remember playing the card game “War.” Nice game, but suppose if you were dealt a weak deck you had the...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Oct 22, 2009, 9:09 am
This was a book that I did not ask for.  Wiley has been sending some books unsolicited.  I’m not glad on all of them, but I am glad they sent this one. Much as I admire Jack Bogle, I am not a...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Oct 21, 2009, 3:44 pm
After the last article on this topic, you would think that they would take me off of the mailing list.  But no.  Wait!  How did GTX Corp do after I wrote my article? In short, when I wrote, the pr...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Oct 2, 2009, 1:33 am
I wrote the following this morning for Finacorp clients: “One of the keys to understanding the current environment is that there is a lot of financial liquidity, which obscures a lack of demand...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Oct 1, 2009, 1:55 am
When I wrote for RealMoney, I would sometimes do Columnist Conversation posts that would be entitled “Miscellaneous Notes,” or “Odds and Ends,” etc.  Occasionally my editor wo...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Sep 30, 2009, 1:38 am
Imagine for a moment that you are managing a large corporate bond portfolio for a major institution.  One of the first things you should internalize is that you will be wrong.  You will buy bonds of...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Sep 29, 2009, 12:50 am
Sorry, it’s been a while since I listed my equity portfolio moves.  I made the following trades yesterday: New Buys: Chubb Computer Sciences Corp Dominion Resources Northrup Grumman National ...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Sep 26, 2009, 11:42 pm
Though Congress may not mandate the sale of vanilla financial products to consumers, it is worth thinking about the concept in general. I have written two articles that argued that consumers should o...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Sep 26, 2009, 3:15 am
I am glad I read this book, but I found it less than satisfactory.  Why?  Wait a moment on that question, while I tell you about the book’s strong points, which I appreciated. AIG’s fou...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Sep 25, 2009, 2:10 am
Last night I wrote a longish post, and the system ate it.  Probably I had not established a firm connection with the server, and when I hit the publish button, it disappeared.  My main point was to ...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Sep 23, 2009, 2:16 pm
August 2009 September 2009 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity is leveling out. Information received since the Federa...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Sep 23, 2009, 2:54 am
This was a horrible day for me.  I tried to fix my shaky internet connection, which troubled my access to Bloomberg.  After some time I had some success, but it pushed me into the late hours of the ...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Sep 22, 2009, 1:33 am
I guess I am a glutton for punishment, but I am going to take the opposite side of the argument from what most have been saying of late regarding the rating agencies.  Those who want historical conte...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Sep 16, 2009, 9:06 am
Okay, I am going out on a limb here, so please understand that what I am saying is a bit of an experiment.  When quantitative easing was originally done in Japan, it was after: a credit-fueled expa...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Sep 15, 2009, 12:34 am
It’s been two years since my last major post on this issue.  A lot has happened since then, much of which points out the truth of what I said. If governments could be powerful enough to insure...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Sep 15, 2009, 12:01 am
What Stories Aren’t Being Told? was my most commented piece since the inception of this blog, and I thank readers.  But Dr. Jeff pointed out in the comments, the tone was on of extreme negativi...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Sep 12, 2009, 11:50 pm
1) Credit cycles tend to persist for more than just one year.  That is one reason why I am skeptical of the run in the high yield corporate bond market at present.  Sharp short moves are very unusua...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Sep 12, 2009, 12:46 am
I have never been a fan of VAR (Value at Risk), but I recognize that mathematical techniques are only as good as those that use them.  Questions arise with any quantitative risk technology: WhatR...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Sep 11, 2009, 8:52 am
Before I start this evening, thanks to all my readers who commented on my post yesterday.  It was my biggest response ever.  I sent to the reporter my summary of your comments. -=-=-==–==-=-=...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Sep 10, 2009, 12:39 am
I did not start blogging in order to start a media career, but sometimes the media finds its way to my door.  I received a call today from a reporter for one of the major television networks, and aft...
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David Merkel posted an article on The Aleph Blog - Sep 9, 2009, 6:00 am
Monetary inflation leads to inflation in goods, services, and/or assets.  We just went through a decade (and then some) where there was low product price inflation, but there was significant inflatio...
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