Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Feb 3, 2012, 7:41 am
First, the trajectory of monetary policy in the US, Europe, China and Japan is in a more accommodative direction. Second, the underlying economies are showing preliminary signs of stabilizing. Third, the combination of easing monetary conditions and economic stabilization has boost demand for higher...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Feb 3, 2012, 12:30 am
Financial news links for 3 February Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. Sign up today for monthly or yearly subscriptions. Also read our News Feed for the latest financial and economic news. News Links 02/03/2012 originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - Daily - Weekl...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Feb 2, 2012, 11:16 pm
It could just be saber rattling during an election year, but Western powers have been provoking Iran for years now - two decades, really. I just saw another report proclaiming that Iran is likely to attack the US, which is about as absurd as the allegations Bush made about Iraq bombing the US, when ...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Feb 2, 2012, 4:51 pm
The chart below from the blog Pragmatic Capitalism shows the U.S. Federal government deficit for each quarter since 1952. As you can see, almost the entire period is marked by deficits Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. Sign up today for monthly or yearly subscriptions. Also read our News Fe...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Feb 2, 2012, 4:00 pm
Cyprus is not an important player on the world's financial stage but it does bear noting that banking and sovereign debt problems run both wide and deep in the European Union. The latest news underscoring these difficulties comes via Fitch, which has just downgraded the largest banks in Cyprus to be...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Feb 2, 2012, 10:30 am
Here's a good video performance by Marshall Auerback on BNN's Business Day program. Marshall thinks the Greek default deal is actually a relatively good one. But sees a Portuguese default after the Greek default as a real possibility and envisions a scenario in which Portugal and Spain look to extra...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Feb 2, 2012, 9:00 am
The Obama administration’s record of prosecuting elite financial frauds is worse than the Bush administration’s record, which is a very large statement. Neither administration has prosecuted any elite CEO for the epidemic of mortgage fraud that drove the ongoing crisis. This contrasts with over ...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Feb 2, 2012, 7:30 am
... would argue that China has in the past made it clear it ... of their desired range.
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Feb 2, 2012, 12:31 am
News Links for 2 Feb Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. Sign up today for monthly or yearly subscriptions. Also read our News Feed for the latest financial and economic news. News Links: The perils of Mario Draghi’s €1.5 trillion blitz originally appeared on Credit Writedowns ...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Feb 1, 2012, 11:00 pm
Bill Moyers talks to former Citicorp and Citigroup head John Reed about what's wrong in the banking sector. John Reed readily acknowledges his role in bringing down the Glass-Steagall Act (Hat tip finance Addict) Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. Sign up today for monthly or yearly subscriptions. ...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 27, 2012, 10:30 pm
Greece plans orderly exit of the Eurozone – National International Trade | Examiner.com Greece plans an orderly exit out of the Eurozone according to two sources close to Mr. Papademos, Greek Prime Minister, who spoke on condition of anonymity earlier today. tags: ...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 27, 2012, 5:22 pm
If you are an American retiree or near-retiree, you’re not happy these days. Five years ago, you were getting a decent return on your fixed income investments. But since then, the Fed has trashed the fixed income market by reducing interest rates to zero percent for "an extended period". The think...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 27, 2012, 5:00 pm
By Richard Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute In their "Advance" estimate of the fourth quarter 2011 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of economic growth had risen to 2.75%, up slightly less than one percent from their "final" estimate of 1.81% for the third q...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 27, 2012, 2:51 pm
... , Political Economy, retail sales, Society Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. Sign up today for monthly or yearly subscriptions. Also read our News Feed for the latest financial and economic news. The Twilight of the Leisure Class originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - Daily ...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 27, 2012, 10:46 am
By Marc Chandler European officials have insisted that Greece is unique. Many market participants do not believe them. Portugal appears to be headed down that same road. While we have warned in the past of risks that Portugal would need a second aid package, it is only since S&P joined the other ma...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 27, 2012, 10:00 am
Stephen Roach says the Fed is going all in in support of QE and I agree. But what else are they going to do? Seriously. I have some thoughts; for example, I would never have had a zero rate policy. I do recognise the severity of the situation though. Look at Europe, for example. The ECB there has a ...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 27, 2012, 9:20 am
Here’s my position on Bernanke’s rate easing: in conjunction with Obama’s attempts to revive mortgage lending for underwater homeowners, it can definitely give a good kick to the economy. rates will be lower and that actually drains interest income out of the economy. But if those lower rates ...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 27, 2012, 7:30 am
... Jul 2010 More About: currency, Europe, investing, News Credit Writedowns Pro is now live. Sign up today for monthly or yearly subscriptions. Also read our News Feed for the latest financial and economic news. Euro at the Crossroads originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links: RSS - ...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 26, 2012, 10:30 pm
MONETARY REALISM | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM I feel that the core operational aspects of MMT are among the most important ideas in the world and my goal here has always been to help promote those ideas. Because I believe in those ideas I will not stop promoting them.
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 26, 2012, 3:00 pm
I was on CNBC yesterday ahead of Ben Bernanke’s speech explaining the FOMC’s recent decision to add an explicit inflation target to its decision to extend its rate easing/permanent zero policy. If I find a video, I will post it below. Here are some thoughts I have since put together on the US ec...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 20, 2012, 1:00 pm
Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer spoke to Bloomberg Television’s Margaret Brennan about the state of the global economy. Roubini said that the "probability of a recession in the United States is lower than 60 percent right now." On Europe, he said that even if an agreement is reached on Greece, "th...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 20, 2012, 10:00 am
By Marc Chandler I have written recently of the euro’s correlation with the S&P 500. I concluded that although the correlation has weakened, it remains elevated. We vigilantly monitor that relationship because it seems that it is representative of the risk-on/risk-off rubric that still is so infl...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 20, 2012, 9:31 am
Don’t Be Fooled: Nothing Is Priced In – The Business Insider there do seem to be a whole slew of developments starting to weigh on collective investor sentiment right now, which will only get heavier in the upcoming weeks and months. No one can tell you that any of these negative and ongoing de...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 20, 2012, 9:00 am
This is a great chart below via the Wall Street Journal. It shows the total debt to GDP ratios for the largest developed economies in the world broken down into four sectors: households, non-financial corporations, financial institutions and government. The takeaways are: The UK and Japan are far ...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 20, 2012, 8:14 am
I have been saying for a few months now that all of the periphery would miss their targets as depression took hold. However, the language in the October 2011 EU summit agreement is unforgiving for Portugal and Ireland: We invite both countries to keep up their efforts, to stick to the agreed target...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 20, 2012, 7:35 am
BBH CurrencyView Dollar pares back some of its recent losses ahead of the weekend; focus on Greek debt negotiations A leaked draft of the new EZ fiscal pact contains tougher rules; growth sensitive currencies top performers We, along with the consensus, expect the Mexican central bank to remain on...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 19, 2012, 10:36 pm
You have probably heard a lot of noise about what was said about the housing bubble at Federal Reserve meetings in 2006. The Federal Reserve Board recently released the transcripts from its 2006 Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings with the mandatory five-year lag and it turns out the Fed was prett...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 19, 2012, 2:39 pm
Below is the link to my latest appearance on BNN with Howard Green and Ryan Avent. Quick thoughts: Credit Writedowns was one of the first English-language sources to report that the IMF was in the picture regarding funding a European bailout. My view has always been that this is just a backup pla...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 19, 2012, 1:35 pm
By Marc Chandler Sentiment toward the euro appears as negative as it has been since the joint intervention a little more than eleven years ago, even if the exchange rate is considerably higher. The net speculative position at the IMM is record short the euro. US money markets have dramatically cut...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 19, 2012, 1:00 pm
By Finance Addict Today’s the big day at Goldman Sachs. Employees of the so-called Vampire Squid will find out whether they’re getting a bonus for last year’s performance and, if so, how much. For what it’s worth I’ve heard rumors from the firm’s own employees that 40% of staff will not...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 17, 2012, 4:25 pm
By Marshall Auerback So the ratings agencies have finally followed through on the big threat and downgraded a number of the eurozone’s credit ratings, including France and Austria, both of which have now lost their coveted Triple AAA status. Italy, Portugal and Spain were downgraded a further two...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 17, 2012, 2:30 pm
The following is my translation of an article carried in today’s Dagens Nyheter, Sweden’s largest daily newspaper. It talks about a Swedish housing bubble and about policy choices in the United States. Sweden may have a bubble in its housing market. But now that housing prices have begun to fal...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 17, 2012, 1:00 pm
This is grim. Bill Black has the legal/economic analysis; he thinks this is a criminogenic environment of control frauds. Related Posts Jon Stewart on Dickishness 2 Jul 2011 Jon Stewart: Why isn’t Ron Paul the one? 16 Aug 2011 Jon Stewart’s indictment of CNBC 13 Mar 2009 More...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 17, 2012, 12:11 pm
By Marc Chandler My wise beyond her years webmaster just told me about Google Public Data Explorer, which allows you to build interactive charts of public data. This is no doubt going to be my new favorite toy. Check out the below graphic which shows General Government Deficit/Surplus as % of GDP o...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 17, 2012, 11:30 am
There has been a lot of discussion about whether China’s growth will slow enough to be considered a hard landing and what that would mean for the global economy and investors. Below is an account from Bloomberg featuring Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jim O’Neill that is more in the soft landing ...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 17, 2012, 11:00 am
By William K. Black This post first appeared on Benzinga.com. Apple has released a report on working conditions in its suppliers’ factories. It highlights a form of control fraud that criminology has identified but rarely discussed. I write overwhelmingly about accounting control fraud because i...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 17, 2012, 9:31 am
Is Europe About to Unravel? – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch The key problem always was the internal imbalances, a problem for which European policymakers have never offered a credible solution.
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 17, 2012, 9:00 am
By L. Randall Wray In the context of today’s conventional wisdom about the dangers of budget deficits, Lerner’s views (examined last week) appear somewhat radical. What is surprising is that they were not all that radical at the time. As everyone knows, Milton Friedman was a conservative econom...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 17, 2012, 8:25 am
By Marc Chandler Over the course of 2011, I had often posted on the correlation with between the euro and the S&P 500. My last note was mid-December. While recognizing that the 60 day rolling correlation (based on percent change) was still firm near record highs (set Dec 2 near 0.85) we noted that ...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Jan 17, 2012, 7:30 am
By Marc Chandler China’s slew of economic data came in better than expected this coupled with successful bill auctions by Spain, Greece and Belgium and a very strong German ZEW (-21 v -53.8) is rekindling the appetite for risk today. The euro is up over a cent and is running into resistance near ...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Dec 15, 2011, 7:42 am
BBH CurrencyView The dollar is broadly weaker as Spanish auction goes well, euro zone PMIs better than expected SNB held policy steady with no change to EUR/CHF floor China, Singapore data help boost sentiment; Hungary reaches deal with banks on CHF loans The dollar is broadly weaker in nar...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Dec 14, 2011, 8:49 pm
... and is sweeping through the investing world like a brush fire ... , cash, or securities in your margin account can be considered as ... if the terms of the margin agreement allow it – almost universally ... of the amount borrowed (the margin). Here it seems appropriate to ... is not the...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Dec 14, 2011, 1:45 pm
By Marc Chandler Norges Bank cut its official deposit rate by 50 bp to 1.75%. Most were looking for a 25 bp move, but some local banks had been warning of a 50 bp. The central bank was clearly concerned about the knock-on effects from the euro zone, but also noted that market funding for Norwegian ...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Dec 14, 2011, 1:30 pm
By Marc Chandler One of the characteristics of the investment climate that we have tracked over the course of the year is the tight relationship between the euro and the S&P 500. The following observations are based correlations conducted on percentage change of the euro and the S&P 500. The 60-da...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Dec 14, 2011, 7:30 am
BBH CurrencyView The dollar is broadly firmer as Italian yields rise at 5-year bond auction, euro zone IP falls Swiss data weak ahead of SNB meeting tomorrow; Norges Bank seen cutting rates 25 bp China data gives cover for more PBOC easing; RBA suggests AUD weakness will help cushion economy...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Dec 13, 2011, 8:30 pm
... decided to do a second round. Verizon ‘Very Serious’ About Making Bid for Netflix, Banker Says – Bloomberg Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), the second- ... Inc. (NFLX), an investment banker said. Verizon may kick off a bidding war ... Bloomberg West," citing unnamed people with...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Dec 13, 2011, 3:00 pm
The following is the press release Moody’s issued in putting the covered bonds of four Spanish banks on review for credit ratings downgrades. Madrid, December 13, 2011 — Moody’s Investors Service has today placed on review for downgrade the following covered bond ratings, prompted by Moody’...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Dec 13, 2011, 2:52 pm
The first few links are on the housing bust in China. While things have gone pear-shaped there (and in India), it is not yet clear this means a hard landing (5% GDP growth or less, down from over 10%). The ability of the Chinese to socialise losses is significantly greater than it is in the West. Ho...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Dec 13, 2011, 2:00 pm
... biggest banks, as the Fed provided near-zero interest rates so that they could play ... would arrive at a cumulative total that equals exactly zero. The number is zero because ... loans currently outstanding under this program. But zero isn’t quite as fun a number ... Hamilton’s argument...
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Edward H. posted an article on Credit Writedowns - Dec 13, 2011, 11:00 am
The following is a statement issued by Herbert Hoover’s White House on 2 June 1931 regarding the federal budget deficit for the year. I have highlighted the parts most relevant to today’s situation. IN REPLY to inquiries from the press the following information in round numbers has been furnish...
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