Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 16, 2009, 12:33 am
Soft GDP numbers today (3Q09+0.2%) leading AUD lower and re-think of pace and size of RBA rate hikes.Daily : Triangle evident. Although triangles are continuation patterns, I find that breakouts on th...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 15, 2009, 11:33 am
Another great candidate for protecting heavily skewed long USD positions in Core Book.All commodities are to varying degrees, negatively correlated to the long USD/fx trade.Just like the ED spread hed...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 15, 2009, 8:14 am
Recent data confirms recovery (NFP, Retail Sales) and driven both US rate expectations and USD/fx higher. This has carried ED spreads wider. Accompanying chart is EDU0/EDH1 and EUR/USD over same time ...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 15, 2009, 2:50 am
Last 1.4564. Worries about debt/deficits (Greece, Austrian banks). Uptrend since Mar09 over. Does not necessarily mean new downtrend yet (although likely, in my view), but certainly selling into ralli...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 13, 2009, 9:42 pm
Started shorting this last week at 335.0 (SSGZ9). Monthly : Still positive.Weekly : Broken out of 303/325 congestion zone but has been a damp squib of a rally since. Not convincing at all.Portfolio : ...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 13, 2009, 9:04 am
Much talk about how gold is best defensive option against current debasement of fiat currencies by Govts.Charts sounding warning to gold bugs not to be complacent. Potential gold sell signal being for...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 11, 2009, 8:55 pm
(Slightly different time scales due to limited visibility with magnification change).
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 11, 2009, 8:44 pm
Price action during the past week confirms a near term sentiment change towards a positive USD. Expect follow through next week given how one sided the market has been, but impact on equities not so c...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 10, 2009, 8:55 pm
Being in a position of weakness, I don‘t have the guts to short this directly.Monthly : Parabolic rise about to pause?Weekly : Evening Star most likely to be crystallized by tonight's NY close.D...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 10, 2009, 10:01 am
Original in-average at +82. Shaken out of short trade at +66 on NFP last Friday. Managed to lock in some profits at +53 (Dubai) but overall, trade has not been as profitable as might have been had I m...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 9, 2009, 6:58 pm
... try try try again .. re-sold at 9995.Weekly SHS top still in play. Neckline is around 10060 this week.
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 8, 2009, 8:37 pm
Last 1.6266.Daily : Series of lower highs and lower lows now evident (with today's low at 1.6226) = new downtrend being formed. Chart looks very top heavy as well (SHS top objective 1.5709). Weekl...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 8, 2009, 1:47 pm
Yet another chart telling the same USD story that has been repeated ad nauseum here the past few days (Crude, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USDX).Charts self explanatory. Potential evening star on weekly. Need a ...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 8, 2009, 7:51 am
Another venue of expression for the higher USD trade.Monthly : Broken UpTL support at 75, which is also a significant previous top.Weekly : Turning lower.Daily : Down.There is still only 1 trade out t...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 8, 2009, 7:13 am
Fresh long at 88.50.Unable to make a case for trade technically from weekly or monthly chart. Bought on a whim.Daily : pull-back from DownTL break.
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 7, 2009, 7:00 am
Last at 1.4792Monthly : Inconclusive. But current candlestick ominous. Weekly : UpTL broken at 1.4900.Daily : Plenty of overhead resistance. Looks down to me.Would use weekly/daily resistance at 1.490...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 7, 2009, 6:46 am
Last traded at 1.6348.Monthly :Big trend is down. Rally since Jan09 is merely a retracement. At some point, the big downtrend will resume. Weekly : Difficult to draw any conclusion worthy of a trade f...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 6, 2009, 9:27 pm
Rare instance of a failed (weekly) periscope signal in TY futures. When it rains, is simply pours.Best to leave this alone here for a while until a new trade pattern emerges. Even though I think the N...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 6, 2009, 9:18 pm
Compare percentage retracements from the peak for each of GBP, CAD, EUR and AUD vs the USD.AUD/USD and EUR/USD have exceeded the 61.8% level by a long way.CAD/USD (not the usual USD/CAD) is trading ar...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 6, 2009, 8:44 am
Another attempt at bottom calling. Been a costly and painful exercise but we have to remain true to our methodology here. Will NOT be selective in deciding which trade signals to take or reject (Rule#...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 4, 2009, 8:31 pm
Has the game changed? Certainly get a sense of that going by the price action last night. Good economic data, equities up (albeit closing way off intra-day highs), USD up (instead of usual carry trade...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 4, 2009, 9:47 am
Thrown in the towel on Rosenberg. IN long at last.Could this be the top finally, now that I am in?
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 4, 2009, 9:05 am
Given improving NFP (impossible to dis-prove until next month), I wonder if we are anywhere near to moving away from current relationship of := increased risk appetite or better data => higher stocks ...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 4, 2009, 8:08 am
Good NFP (-11k, 10.0%). Have to re-assess.Completely out -EDM0/+EDZ0 spread at +66.Stopped out entire Core book as well. (US10YY, Nikkei).
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 4, 2009, 1:45 am
This has now rallied all the way to the weekly SHS neckline at 10000.What to do? To short or not to short?As a firm believer of technical chart trading, I have no option but to put in a position here....
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 3, 2009, 6:50 am
Updated charts from previous post "3 Favorite Charts".All gone horribly wrong in a remarkably short period of time. Seriously not quite sure I know what I am doing anymore.Unlike previous trades to wh...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 1, 2009, 6:54 am
Daily chart forming possible bear flag now.If yields don't trade up too much from here soon, the flag is pointing to 25 bp downside (assuming 3.25% top, then objective is 3.00%).[Addendum 02Dec09 ...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Dec 1, 2009, 4:42 am
[Post to document frustration with my own trading].Established fresh short AUD/JPY last Friday on weekly UpTL break.2 days later .. RBA rate hike (half anticipated) and BOJ QE (unexpected). AUD/JPY +...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 29, 2009, 9:31 am

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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 28, 2009, 8:17 am
Nikkei 225 : Advancing SHS top.A revisit to the previous low at 7173 cannot be ruled out.Pullback towards 9287 is for selling. US10YY : Uptrend broken in mid-Aug09 and consolidation since.Close at 3.2...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 27, 2009, 7:33 pm
Very resilient bulls. Dubai brushed aside as a blip, with long buying tails (hammers) evident on a lot of daily charts = yesterday's Asia/Europe price action is only a retracement. Nevertheless, s...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 27, 2009, 4:10 am
Gap on daily chart due to Dubai news released during holiday trading. Interesting to see if market manages to fill this in the next few sessions.Weekly : Below yield support now. Watch closing to see ...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 27, 2009, 1:34 am
Was long USD/CAD. Stopped out 2 days ago unfortunately.Daily : triangle breakout on downside (which got me out) and now reversed to break upside. Whipsaw. Weekly : DownTL broken weeks ago. Since break...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 26, 2009, 10:34 pm
Running a monster sized trade in -EDM0/+EDZ0 since 03Aug09. Average in +82.SHS top objective at +55. But chart looks like it is about to fall out of bed even more. Nevertheless, prudent to take some r...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 26, 2009, 9:50 pm
This pair has been trading within a congested band for the longest time .. since the equity bottom in Mar09.Finally looks like it has broken out on the downside.As per ING Research, probably no longer...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 26, 2009, 8:33 pm
No question weekly UpTL at 91.35 now broken (though we should really wait for NY close tonight for confirmation). Short last night at 91.17. (Was too tired to post real time. Apologies). Last 90.26.Aw...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 26, 2009, 10:02 am
1.5061 was previous top. Broke above to high of 1.5141 today but have since faded.Fresh short on first trade back below. Price action has loss of momentum and reversal feel to it. (Rosenberg bias here...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 26, 2009, 4:23 am
Follow up on previous post re : Periscope WatchTY continuation chart now has clear periscope-like price action. Very bullish.Don't listen to the CNBC talking heads etc about budget deficits, plent...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 26, 2009, 3:50 am
Reproduced without permission here. Very interesting report. Must read for an understanding of current carry trade dynamics.
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 26, 2009, 1:21 am
Shorted AUD/USD at close of last week. In hindsight, I was trying too hard to force a trade, using obscure reasons like outside range price action to anticipate a turn and a poor excuse to jump in ear...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 26, 2009, 12:34 am
Last 86.74Important crisis low 87.11 (Dec08/Jan09) broken.Quarterly chart here (instead of usual monthly) shows next chartpoint is all time low 79.70 made in Apr95.Fresh short established earlier on b...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 25, 2009, 11:28 pm
ED leading the way.Euribors & Short Sterling spreads on narrowing path too. Current levels offer good entry points for fresh shorts. Aussie Bank Bills spreads sideways around +50 = Fair value?
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 25, 2009, 6:18 am
New low at 74.40, below previous low of 74.68.Last at 74.54. Stopped out trades attempting to pick bottom (vs AUD, CAD + straight USDX). Fortunately all done in small. Another opportunity to get on bo...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 24, 2009, 7:53 am
From Slate.
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 24, 2009, 3:59 am
0x3 USD FRA = 3 mth Libor = 0.26%6x9 USD FRA = 0.48%Diff = 0.22%7x10 = EDM0 = 0.50%13x16 = EDZ0 = 1.165%Diff = 0.665%+ve Carry = +44.5 bp over 7 mths = Appx 6 bp per monthIn event of re-emergence of c...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 24, 2009, 12:02 am
Last 3.34%. Timing for a significant move seems near.Monthly : Sideways. Will only get exciting if we break 3.11% below, in which case we would be looking at 2.04%.Weekly : Trapped between 3.32% and 3...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 22, 2009, 3:04 am
From the Telegraph. "Given is the type of popular footballing figure that the game should cherish. When the Manchester City keeper walked towards his goal before kick-off at Anfield on Saturday...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 22, 2009, 12:22 am
"Anchoring" = act of latching onto a given piece of information and using that as a point of reference for making decisions.Since Aug09, I have been bought over and anchored by Rosenberg, and have bee...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 20, 2009, 9:25 pm
USD index : Given new recent low at 74.68, have had to re-draw DownTL according to TraderVic's method. Need to clear 75.75 on top to turn bullish next week. Until that occurs, have to regard longs...
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Ngee Ping Tio posted an article on Taichiseal Charts - Nov 20, 2009, 2:22 pm
Less than an hour to NY close on a Friday night. The week's price bars/candles more or less formed.Now (4:22 am S'pore) : GBP/USD at 1.6495. AUD/USD at 0.9146.Outside range weeks (vs last week...
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