SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Oct 22, 2009, 10:56 am
A bearish frenzy has developed in the US dollar, and is probably the strongest consensus I've seen since the bullish stampede in oil f...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Oct 14, 2009, 10:41 am
I wrote several times in 2008 on Japan's secular economic decline, determined by the developed world's worst demographic outlook. ...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Oct 8, 2009, 3:22 pm
Don't expect to be crushed underfoot in the rush; while rate cuts were tightly co-ordinated to stem last year's systemic panic, th...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Oct 1, 2009, 1:12 pm
With Hilary Clinton as Eva Peron singing 'Don't cry for me Obama'? One of the most remarkable economic reversals over the last...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Sep 24, 2009, 2:44 pm
In recent days, it's being reported that the Fed is structuring a new securities reverse repo program with Wall Street money market funds, in the first practical sign of a policy 'exit strateg...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Sep 16, 2009, 5:02 am
Early this year, I advocated building exposure to long-term inflation hedges such as TIPS and resource equities, because they were radically mispriced as investors fled in fear of a sustained deflatio...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Sep 11, 2009, 11:35 am
While markets are celebrating an imminent return to US economic growth, the composition of that growth is critical to its sustainability. US economic fragility predates the credit crisis, which in fac...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Sep 3, 2009, 8:59 am
Investment bankers on starvation rations as the M&A slump bites should get busy learning Mandarin, because there are growing indications that China is about to make its presence felt in global capital...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Aug 26, 2009, 12:19 pm
After a stunning six-month rally in equities, commodities and corporate bonds, we are reaching a critical juncture for markets, which have swung from despondency to euphoria since March. Incoming data...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Aug 21, 2009, 7:38 am
If there is one clear upside surprise in recent economic news, it surely must be the remarkably fast rebound of the core European economies. Not only have France and Germany reported marginally positi...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Aug 14, 2009, 1:06 pm
Investors across all markets should pay close attention to US tax receipts in coming months, because if the economy is truly at an inflection point in the current quarter, it should swiftly translate ...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Aug 12, 2009, 11:59 am
The Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) market has exploded in recent years to total over $600bn in the US alone, offering both long and short exposure to most asset classes. It is now used by institutional as...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Aug 5, 2009, 8:54 am
On March 4th I wrote: 'My overall view is that fears of economic Armageddon have been grossly exaggerated (and consequently equities grossly oversold), and that the unprecedented global fiscal and...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Jul 31, 2009, 2:29 pm
The economic free-fall is over, but it would be wise to keep your seat belt loosely fastened for further turbulence. Seasonally adjusted US GDP declined a less than expected 1% in Q2, although that po...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Jul 29, 2009, 8:04 am
The auto industry has been one of the hardest hit by the collapse of credit markets and consumer confidence since last Summer, and given its huge weight in many economies such as Germany and Japan, an...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Jul 23, 2009, 6:36 am
As Ben Bernanke attempts to articulate an 'exit strategy' from the recent unprecedented policy actions, it's worth revisiting the precise nature of these actions as the Fed balance sheet b...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Jul 17, 2009, 8:24 am
While investors have cheered China's Q2 GDP growth of 7.9% as evidence of the country's policy success, they may be missing a hugely destabilizing spiral in monetary policy that is generating ...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Jul 15, 2009, 2:59 pm
Although I would expect financials to lead the final phase of this bear rally to my longheld target of around 1000 on the S&P, given the very supportive market conditions engineered by the Fed and oth...
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SEAN M. posted an article on Dead Cats Bouncing - Jul 1, 2009, 2:02 pm
Is diversification dead? Many investors, notably university endowments and pension funds, have been guilty of grossly underestimating the cross correlations in the supposedly diversified assets they h...
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